BofA: We are expecting nonfarm payrolls to increase by an above-consensus 200k in Friday's jobs report. The main driver of our forecast is the recent moderation in jobless claims, after a conceming uptick earlier this summer. The unemployment rate should drop by a tenth to 4.2%. We will provide more details, including a discussion of risks, in a forthcoming employment preview. The August jobs data would be pivotal for the speed of Fed cuts in the near term. Broadly, we see three paths for Fed policy

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