英译汉:This paper presents the results of simulated case studies, analyzing the effects of a novel price-based control system in a 1.5 GW offshore wind-hydrogen facility in Norway. The novel control system was com bined with a polynomial regression model that estimates the wind farm capacity factor based on wind speed input and a hydrogen production model based on a previously developed model (Egeland-Eriksen et al., 2023). Real-world wind speed and energy production data from a 2.3 MW FOWT were used to train the 12-degree polynomial regression model. The regression model was then combined with the hydrogen production model and the novel control system, as well as 10 years (2013-2022) of real-world data of wind speeds and electricity prices from a location in Norway, close to the planned location of the 1.5 GW Utsira Nord (Utsira Nord, 2024) floating offshore wind farm. We simulated 11 different case studies of a 1.5 GW wind-hydrogen system, using both current and future (2050) scenarios. The results indicate that large-scale hydrogen production via PEM electrolysis with electricity from an offshore wind farm could become economically and technically viable if a price-based control system is used to decide when the wind power is used to produce hydrogen and when it is sold directly to the electricity grid. The novel control system developed in this study resulted in a LCOH of 6.04 $/kg H2 in the base case (current technology and costs), which is within current LCOH estimates for green hydrogen (2.5-6.8 $/kg H2 in (Vickers et al., 2020) and 3.2-7.7 $/kg H2 in (Global average levelised cost of hydrogen production by energy source and technology, 2019)). This was a 32% reduction in LCOH compared to the same case without the control system. However, this is still more than three times as high as the LCOH of grey hydrogen, currently estimated to be in the range 0.7-1.6 $/kg H2 (Global average levelised cost of hydrogen production by energy source and technology, 2019). When using technology improvements and cost reductions forecast for 2050, the resulting LCOH in the most optimistic cases were 0.96 $/kg H2 when only electricity from offshore wind was used and 0.82 $/kg H2 when the electrolyzer was allowed to use grid electricity. The latter will not qualify as green hydrogen though, unless the electricity grid is based on 100% renewable energy. The novel control system developed in this study had a positive effect in all simulation cases and reduced the LCOH by 10-46% compared to the equivalent cases without the control system. These results show that a control system of the type proposed in this study will be a crucial factor to make wind-hydrogen systems econom ically viable. Finally, the simulation case where the electrolyzer was located offshore in a 1.5 GW off-grid wind farm resulted in a LCOH of 4.96 $/kg H2, which indicates that it will be challenging for off-grid offshore wind-hydrogen systems to compete with onshore hydrogen production systems. To increase the realism of the model, several aspects can be sug gested. These include integration of even more realistic dynamics of PEM electrolyzer usage (ramp-up/cold start-up time, energy usage for standby mode) and its degradation over its lifetime; consider dynamic process simulations of the compression, storage and transport of hydrogen (instead of using a constant per kg of hydrogen) and of the desalination of sea water for the off-grid offshore scenarios (instead of using a constant per kg of hydrogen). The accuracy of the proposed model will also benefit from the addition of power electronics, and the price-based control system could benefit from access to a dynamic selling price of hydrogen instead of using a constant value. Furthermore, an analysis to simulate the effect that large-scale green hydrogen production with price-based control systems will have on the electricity price (feedback effect) will be useful toward the realization of real-world wind-hydrogen systems at the scale necessary to propel a sustainable transition.
理解问题英译汉:This paper presents the results of simulated case studies, analyzing the effects of a novel price-based control system in a 1.5 GW offshore wind-hydrogen facility in Norway. The novel control system was com bined with a polynomial regression model that estimates the wind farm capacity factor based on wind speed input and a hydrogen production model based on a previously developed model (Egeland-Eriksen et al., 2023). Real-world wind speed and energy production data from a 2.3 MW FOWT were used to train the 12-degree polynomial regression model. The regression model was then combined with the hydrogen production model and the novel control system, as well as 10 years (2013-2022) of real-world data of wind speeds and electricity prices from a location in Norway, close to the planned location of the 1.5 GW Utsira Nord (Utsira Nord, 2024) floating offshore wind farm. We simulated 11 different case studies of a 1.5 GW wind-hydrogen system, using both current and future (2050) scenarios. The results indicate that large-scale hydrogen production via PEM electrolysis with electricity from an offshore wind farm could become economically and technically viable if a price-based control system is used to decide when the wind power is used to produce hydrogen and when it is sold directly to the electricity grid. The novel control system developed in this study resulted in a LCOH of 6.04 $/kg H2 in the base case (current technology and costs), which is within current LCOH estimates for green hydrogen (2.5-6.8 $/kg H2 in (Vickers et al., 2020) and 3.2-7.7 $/kg H2 in (Global average levelised cost of hydrogen production by energy source and technology, 2019)). This was a 32% reduction in LCOH compared to the same case without the control system. However, this is still more than three times as high as the LCOH of grey hydrogen, currently estimated to be in the range 0.7-1.6 $/kg H2 (Global average levelised cost of hydrogen production by energy source and technology, 2019). When using technology improvements and cost reductions forecast for 2050, the resulting LCOH in the most optimistic cases were 0.96 $/kg H2 when only electricity from offshore wind was used and 0.82 $/kg H2 when the electrolyzer was allowed to use grid electricity. The latter will not qualify as green hydrogen though, unless the electricity grid is based on 100% renewable energy. The novel control system developed in this study had a positive effect in all simulation cases and reduced the LCOH by 10-46% compared to the equivalent cases without the control system. These results show that a control system of the type proposed in this study will be a crucial factor to make wind-hydrogen systems econom ically viable. Finally, the simulation case where the electrolyzer was located offshore in a 1.5 GW off-grid wind farm resulted in a LCOH of 4.96 $/kg H2, which indicates that it will be challenging for off-grid offshore wind-hydrogen systems to compete with onshore hydrogen production systems. To increase the realism of the model, several aspects can be sug gested. These include integration of even more realistic dynamics of PEM electrolyzer usage (ramp-up/cold start-up time, energy usage for standby mode) and its degradation over its lifetime; consider dynamic process simulations of the compression, storage and transport of hydrogen (instead of using a constant per kg of hydrogen) and of the desalination of sea water for the off-grid offshore scenarios (instead of using a constant per kg of hydrogen). The accuracy of the proposed model will also benefit from the addition of power electronics, and the price-based control system could benefit from access to a dynamic selling price of hydrogen instead of using a constant value. Furthermore, an analysis to simulate the effect that large-scale green hydrogen production with price-based control systems will have on the electricity price (feedback effect) will be useful toward the realization of real-world wind-hydrogen systems at the scale necessary to propel a sustainable transition.
已完成理解「英译汉:This paper presents the results of simulated case studies, analyzing the effects of a novel price-based control system in a 1.5 GW offshore wind-hydrogen facility in Norway. The novel control system was com bined with a polynomial regression model that estimates the wind farm capacity factor based on wind speed input and a hydrogen production model based on a previously developed model (Egeland-Eriksen et al., 2023). Real-world wind speed and energy production data from a 2.3 MW FOWT were used to train the 12-degree polynomial regression model. The regression model was then combined with the hydrogen production model and the novel control system, as well as 10 years (2013-2022) of real-world data of wind speeds and electricity prices from a location in Norway, close to the planned location of the 1.5 GW Utsira Nord (Utsira Nord, 2024) floating offshore wind farm. We simulated 11 different case studies of a 1.5 GW wind-hydrogen system, using both current and future (2050) scenarios. The results indicate that large-scale hydrogen production via PEM electrolysis with electricity from an offshore wind farm could become economically and technically viable if a price-based control system is used to decide when the wind power is used to produce hydrogen and when it is sold directly to the electricity grid. The novel control system developed in this study resulted in a LCOH of 6.04 $/kg H2 in the base case (current technology and costs), which is within current LCOH estimates for green hydrogen (2.5-6.8 $/kg H2 in (Vickers et al., 2020) and 3.2-7.7 $/kg H2 in (Global average levelised cost of hydrogen production by energy source and technology, 2019)). This was a 32% reduction in LCOH compared to the same case without the control system. However, this is still more than three times as high as the LCOH of grey hydrogen, currently estimated to be in the range 0.7-1.6 $/kg H2 (Global average levelised cost of hydrogen production by energy source and technology, 2019). When using technology improvements and cost reductions forecast for 2050, the resulting LCOH in the most optimistic cases were 0.96 $/kg H2 when only electricity from offshore wind was used and 0.82 $/kg H2 when the electrolyzer was allowed to use grid electricity. The latter will not qualify as green hydrogen though, unless the electricity grid is based on 100% renewable energy. The novel control system developed in this study had a positive effect in all simulation cases and reduced the LCOH by 10-46% compared to the equivalent cases without the control system. These results show that a control system of the type proposed in this study will be a crucial factor to make wind-hydrogen systems econom ically viable. Finally, the simulation case where the electrolyzer was located offshore in a 1.5 GW off-grid wind farm resulted in a LCOH of 4.96 $/kg H2, which indicates that it will be challenging for off-grid offshore wind-hydrogen systems to compete with onshore hydrogen production systems. To increase the realism of the model, several aspects can be sug gested. These include integration of even more realistic dynamics of PEM electrolyzer usage (ramp-up/cold start-up time, energy usage for standby mode) and its degradation over its lifetime; consider dynamic process simulations of the compression, storage and transport of hydrogen (instead of using a constant per kg of hydrogen) and of the desalination of sea water for the off-grid offshore scenarios (instead of using a constant per kg of hydrogen). The accuracy of the proposed model will also benefit from the addition of power electronics, and the price-based control system could benefit from access to a dynamic selling price of hydrogen instead of using a constant value. Furthermore, an analysis to simulate the effect that large-scale green hydrogen production with price-based control systems will have on the electricity price (feedback effect) will be useful toward the realization of real-world wind-hydrogen systems at the scale necessary to propel a sustainable transition.」
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本文介绍了模拟案例研究的成果,分析了在挪威一个1.5吉瓦海上风氢设施中,一种新型基于价格的控制系统的影响。该新型控制系统结合了一个多项式回归模型,该模型根据风速输入估算风力发电场的容量因子,以及一个基于先前开发的模型(Egeland-Eriksen等人,2023年)的氢气生产模型。使用来自2.3兆瓦浮式风力涡轮机(FOWT)的实际风速和能源生产数据来训练12次多项式回归模型。然后将回归模型与氢气生产模型和新型控制系统相结合,以及从挪威一个位置(靠近计划中的1.5吉瓦Utsira Nord(Utsira Nord,2024)浮式海上风电场)收集的10年(2013-2022年)的实际风速和电价数据。
我们模拟了11个不同的1.5吉瓦风氢系统案例研究,使用了当前和未来的(2050年)情景。结果表明,如果使用基于价格的控制系统来决定何时使用风能生产氢气以及何时直接将其出售给电网,那么通过海上风电场产生的 PEM 电解制氢可能成为经济和技术上可行的。在本研究中开发的创新控制系统在基准案例(当前技术和成本)中实现了每千克氢气6.04美元的平准化成本(LCOH),这处于当前绿色氢气平准化成本的估计范围内(Vickers等人,2020年估计为每千克氢气2.5-6.8美元,2019年全球平均按能源来源和技术生产氢气的平准化成本为每千克氢气3.2-7.7美元)。这比没有控制系统的同一案例的LCOH降低了32%。然而,这仍然比目前估计的灰氢平准化成本高三倍以上,灰氢的平准化成本估计在每千克氢气0.7-1.6美元之间(2019年全球平均按能源来源和技术生产氢气的平准化成本)。当使用预测的2050年技术改进和成本降低时,在最乐观的情况下,LCOH为每千克氢气0.96美元(仅使用海上风电的电力)和每千克氢气0.82美元(电解槽允许使用电网电力)。然而,后者如果不基于100%可再生能源的电网,则不能算作绿色氢。在本研究中开发的创新控制系统在所有模拟案例中都有积极影响,与没有控制系统的等效案例相比,LCOH降低了10-46%。这些结果表明,本研究中提出的控制类型将是使风氢系统经济可行的关键因素。最后,在电解槽位于1.5吉瓦离网风场 offshore 的情况下,模拟案例的LCOH为每千克氢气4.96美元,这表明离网海上风氢系统将难以与陆上氢生产系统竞争。
为了提高模型的现实性,可以提出几个建议。这包括整合更真实的 PEM 电解槽使用动态(如爬坡/冷启动时间、备用模式的能耗)及其在其使用寿命内的退化;考虑氢气压缩、储存和运输的动态过程模拟(而不是使用每千克氢气的恒定值)和离网海上场景的海水淡化(而不是使用每千克氢气的恒定值)。所提出的模型的准确性也将受益于功率电子的增加,而基于价格的控制系统将受益于访问氢气的动态销售价格而不是使用恒定值。此外,模拟大规模绿色氢气生产对电价(反馈效应)影响的分析将有助于实现现实世界的风氢系统,以推动可持续转型所需的比例。
Equinor和RWE的合作协议中,提到的海上风电场预计何时能开始生产绿氢?
Equinor和RWE的合作协议中提到的海上风电场预计将逐步开始生产绿氢。具体的时间表未在提供的参考资料中明确提及,但根据协议内容,合作双方计划在两国之间共同开发大型能源价值链,其中包括联合开发海上风电场以生产可再生氢(绿氢)。随着可再生氢产量的增加,未来绿氢将补充并最终取代管道中的低碳氢(蓝氢),从而为工业领域提供完全脱碳的基本燃料和工业原料。因此,预计绿氢的生产将在项目逐步推进的过程中开始,具体时间取决于项目的实施进度和相关基础设施的建设情况1。
挪威Equinor和德国RWE的合作,对于未来全球氢能市场有何影响?
挪威Equinor和德国RWE的合作对于未来全球氢能市场具有重要影响。这一合作标志着两国在能源转型和氢能经济方面的深化合作。以下是一些具体影响:
- 推动氢能经济发展:合作将有助于推动氢能经济的发展,尤其是在欧洲地区,为氢能的供应链和基础设施发展提供支持。
- 提高氢能供应的可靠性和规模:通过联合开发海上风电场和氢气管道,合作有助于提高氢能供应的可靠性和规模,满足未来工业和电力行业对氢能的需求。
- 促进技术进步:合作将促进相关技术的进步,包括海上风电技术、氢气储存和运输技术等。
- 对全球能源格局的影响:这一合作可能对全球能源格局产生影响,尤其是在减少对化石燃料的依赖方面。
总体而言,Equinor和RWE的合作对于推动全球氢能市场的发展具有重要意义110。
试点项目价值900万欧元,它是如何帮助大规模海上商业用途准备系统的?
试点项目价值900万欧元,旨在开发一种先进的能源系统,以海上风电为动力生产绿色氢气,并允许财团合作伙伴为大规模海上商业用途准备该系统。以下是一些具体方式:
- 技术验证:通过试点项目,可以验证海上风电制氢技术的可行性和效率,为大规模商业应用提供技术支持。
- 经验积累:试点项目有助于积累实际操作经验,为后续的大规模项目提供参考。
- 成本优化:通过试点项目,可以探索降低制氢成本的方法,为大规模商业应用提供成本效益。
- 产业链完善:试点项目有助于推动相关产业链的发展,包括设备制造、材料供应、技术支持等,为大规模商业应用提供基础设施支持4。
挪威政府发布的能源白皮书对海上风电行业的发展有何具体影响?
挪威政府发布的能源白皮书对海上风电行业的发展产生了重大影响,具体包括:
- 政策支持:白皮书为海上风电行业提供了政策支持,包括审批程序、资金支持、技术指导等。
- 市场扩大:白皮书宣布开放新的海域用于海上风电开发,扩大了市场容量。
- 技术进步:白皮书鼓励技术创新,推动海上风电行业的技术进步。
- 产业升级:白皮书有助于推动海上风电产业的升级,提高产业竞争力。
总体而言,挪威政府的能源白皮书为海上风电行业的发展提供了强有力的支持,有助于推动行业健康发展67。
海上风电制氢的经济可行性是如何被评估的?
海上风电制氢的经济可行性通过以下方式评估:
- 成本分析:评估制氢项目的总成本,包括设备、运营、维护等成本。
- 收益分析:评估项目的预期收益,包括氢气的销售收入、政府补贴等。
- 经济效益指标:使用经济效益指标,如净现值(NPV)、内部收益率(IRR)等,来评估项目的经济可行性。
- 技术可行性:评估制氢技术的可行性和效率。