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、 An analyst develops the folowing probability distribution about the state of the economy and the market.which of thefollowing statements about this probability distribution is least likely accurate? Initial ProbabilityP(A) ConditionalProbability P(B A) Bull market 50%Good economy60% Normal market 30% Bear market 20% Poor economy Bull market 20% .40% Normal market 30% Bear market 50%Which of the following statements about this probability distribution is least likely accurate? G) A. The probability of a normal market is 0.30 B.The probability of having a good economy and a bear market is 0.12. C.Given that the economy is good, the chance of a poor economy and a bull market is 0.15(D.Given that the economy is poor, the combined probability of a normal or a bull market is 0.50
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- 选项D的表述最不可能准确。
概率分布的准确性
- 选项A：正常市场的概率是0.30，这是准确的，因为直接给出的条件概率是30%。
- 选项B：好经济和熊市同时发生的概率是0.12，计算方法是将好经济的概率（0.50）与在好经济条件下熊市的概率（0.20）相乘，即 ，表述有误。
- 选项C：在经济状况良好的情况下，贫困经济和牛市的概率是0.15，这是不可能的，因为已经明确了经济状况是“良好”，所以不可能同时是“贫困”，表述错误。
- 选项D：在经济状况不佳的情况下，正常市场或牛市的总概率是0.50，计算方法是将贫困经济下正常市场的概率（0.30）与牛市的概率（0.40）相加，即 ，表述有误。
你觉得结果怎么样？